Elon Musk Thinks the SpaceX Crash is an ‘Insane Opportunity’—Should You Trust Him?

Joey FrenetteWed, August 5, 2026 at 6:58 PM UTC

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SpaceX shares dropped 8% after its first public earnings report despite beating Q2 estimates, as investors balked at $18.4 billion in CapEx.

Elon Musk called the sell-off an 'insane opportunity,' with SpaceX shares trading between $10 and $20 below its $135 IPO price and 42% off peak.

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Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) just pulled the curtain on its first-ever quarterly earnings report as a public firm. And, for the most part, investors were not all that impressed, with shares of SpaceX tumbling just shy of 8% on Tuesday's after-hours session, giving up much of the gains it enjoyed on the day. Indeed, it seems like an 8-10% pop on any given day is not at all out of the ordinary for Elon Musk's $1.5 trillion rocket company.

While the numbers themselves were decent, with the firm topping estimates for the second quarter with a narrower-than-expected loss, with Starlink leading the way, investors appeared increasingly concerned about the heavy CapEx.

There's no question that it takes a ton of CapEx to play not only in rockets, but with AI. And, in many ways, SpaceX is as much an AI company as it is a play on the future of the space economy. With the orbital data center boom underway and the potential for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Optimus robots to enrich the SpaceX story further, the two technologies do go hand-in-hand with the name.

That CapEx figure was alarming to some, but it shouldn't be surprising given the price to play in AI

With hyperscalers reporting pretty solid numbers to go with a strong reception despite their hefty CapEx bills (which should be baked into the share price by now), perhaps it's a mystery as to why SpaceX's latest CapEx figures caused such an upsetting after-hours reaction.

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At the very least, Starlink is generating serious cash flows. And with things going quite well with Starship, it certainly feels like SpaceX is headed in the right direction.

With a still-lofty valuation and an ever-increasing price to play in AI (something I highlighted in prior pieces as a top reason to avoid buying shares of SpaceX immediately after they went live on the public markets), I do think those looking for SpaceX to make a sudden surge into profitability are going to be waiting quite a while, especially as the firm continues spending big money to keep up in this massive AI buildout.

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In my view, SpaceX isn't the kind of company that you'd want to shift into profitability, anyway. If you want growth, every penny ought to be reinvested in the growth engine, whether that's AI, rockets, orbital data centers, or both.

Of course, the firm could probably achieve a more comfortable balance as Starlink really starts pulling its weight to help pay the bills. But, at the end of the day, AI feels like a spend-now or regret-later kind of environment. And, like it or hate it, $18.4 billion in second-quarter CapEx seems to be in the right spot, given where the firm's at today.

An "insane" opportunity to buy? Time will tell.

Time will tell where shares of SpaceX open tomorrow, but Elon Musk took to X with his thoughts on the new price of admission, which is $10-20 below the IPO price of $135 per share.

Elon Musk, a man whose ambition knows no bounds, seems to think that the latest sell-off is more of an "insane" opportunity to do some buying, even if it means having to put up with more pain and volatility over the nearer term.

With many analysts standing by their price targets and buy ratings, I do think that the sell-side community sides with Musk, especially after a violent 42% implosion from peak levels of $185 per share. SpaceX's spending is giving AI sales a big shot in the arm, and with a Street-high $800.00 price target in place, it certainly feels like Musk is right in that recent volatility has created more of a window to buy than anything else.

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Source: “AOL Money”