Lucid (LCID) and Rivian (RIVN) Stocks Jump as Oil Rises but Tesla (TSLA) Stock Lags

David MoadelMon, March 9, 2026 at 8:02 PM UTC

0

24/7 Wall St. (24/7 Wall St.)Quick Read -

Lucid (LCID) stock trades at $10.48 (-0.09% YTD), Rivian (RIVN) at $15.94 (-19.15% YTD, +40.37% past year, $120M Q4 profit), Tesla (TSLA) at $399.20 (-11.23% YTD), and BYD (BYDDY) at $80.21.

Oil surged 4.5% to $94.90 per barrel on Middle East tensions, lifting Lucid and Rivian shares, while Tesla faces a federal probe into Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and competition from BYD.

The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here FREE.

Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) stock and Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock are jumping sharply today while Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) lags behind. Tesla shares are weighed down by a new federal probe into its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system and intensifying competition from Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer BYD (OTC:BYDDY).

Tesla stock is down 12.73% year-to-date in 2026, while Rivian stock is down 20.45% and Lucid stock is down 4.07%. All three EV makers face headwinds, but today's oil spike is providing a short-term lift to Lucid and Rivian.

In case you didn't get the memo, oil is making a dramatic move today. As of approximately 1:40 p.m. ET on Monday, WTI crude oil traded at around $94.90 per barrel, up sharply from Friday's close. A main driver is escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically fears around the Iran conflict and potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

READ: The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks

With oil approaching $100 per barrel, the ripple effects are being felt across the market. As we noted earlier today, even traditional energy stocks are reacting in surprising ways.

While rising oil is a headache for most sectors, EV stocks tend to catch a tailwind when gas prices climb. The logic is simple: the more expensive it gets to fill a tank, the more attractive an electric vehicle becomes.

Today, that dynamic is playing out clearly in the EV space, but not uniformly. Lucid stock and Rivian stock are catching bids, while Tesla stock is sitting this one out.

Stock

Friday (Mar 6) Close

Today's Price (Mar 9)

YTD Change

Lucid Group (LCID)

$9.77

$10.48

-0.9%

Rivian Automotive (RIVN)

$15.37

$15.94

-19.15%

Tesla (TSLA)

$396.73

$399.20

-11.23%

Today's prices reflect intraday trading as of approximately 3:50 PM ET on March 9, 2026.

Lucid Group Stock: Oil Spike Provides a Short-Term Catalyst

LCID stock is moving higher today, trading at $10.48, up from Friday's close of $9.77. For a stock that has been grinding lower, today's oil-driven bounce is a welcome change of pace.

But context matters here. Lucid Group stock is down more than 50% over the past year and has shed nearly 96% of its value over five years, from a peak near $247 per share down to where it trades today. That is a staggering destruction of value, and one day's oil-driven move does not change the underlying story.

The longer-term challenges for Lucid Group are real. The company posted Q4 2025 revenue of $522.73 million, which sounds impressive until you see that cost of revenue came in at $944.64 million for the same period -- meaning Lucid Group is spending nearly twice what it earns on every vehicle it sells. Free cash flow was -$1.24 billion in Q4 alone. The company's survival continues to depend heavily on its relationship with Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund.

Advertisement

Analyst sentiment reflects this reality. The analyst consensus target sits at $13.85, with one buy, seven hold, and two sell ratings. Thus, today's bounce is a trading move, not a fundamental rerating.

Rivian Automotive Stock: Amazon Partnership and Oil Tailwind Fuel the Rally

Rivian Automotive is also gaining today, with RIVN stock trading at $15.94, up from Friday's close of $15.37. Unlike Lucid Group, Rivian has shown some genuine recent momentum: the stock is up 7.79% over the past month and is actually up 41.76% over the past year, making it the relative outperformer among the three names today.

There is a real business story developing here. Rivian Automotive posted its first full year of positive gross profit, with $120 million in quarterly gross profit in Q4 2025; this is a meaningful milestone for a company that has been burning cash since its IPO. Software and services revenue jumped 109% year-over-year to $447 million, largely driven by the Volkswagen joint venture. That's the kind of high-margin revenue stream that changes the narrative over time.

That said, analysts are cautious. UBS downgraded Rivian Automotive shares to Sell from Neutral in January 2026, with a price target of $15 -- a level the stock is currently trading above at $15.82. The analyst consensus target sits at $17.88, implying modest upside from current levels. Rivian Automotive CEO RJ Scaringe's upcoming keynote at ACT Expo 2026 signals continued focus on the commercial EV market, where the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) delivery van partnership remains a key differentiator.

Tesla Stock: Federal Probe and BYD Competition Weigh on Shares Despite Oil Surge

Here is where today's story gets interesting. Tesla stock is barely in the green, trading at $399.20 versus Friday's close of $396.73, even as oil surges and its EV peers rally. Clearly, something specific is holding Tesla back.

Two catalysts stand out. First, a federal investigation is now targeting Tesla's Full Self-Driving system for alleged traffic violations. Regulatory overhangs of this nature tend to weigh on sentiment, particularly for a company whose valuation is partly built on the promise of autonomous driving.

Second, BYD has filed paperwork to import EVs to Canada, extending its competitive reach further into North America. Reddit sentiment this morning reflects these concerns, with the most-discussed post on r/stocks being about SpaceX and Elon Musk's political exposure; that's not exactly the kind of conversation that drives buyers into TSLA stock.

The competitive threat from BYD is worth taking seriously. BYD shares are trading at $80.21 today, and the company's recent rollout of five-minute flash-charging battery technology has captured significant retail investor attention as a direct threat to Tesla's technology narrative.

The Big Picture for EV Stocks

Zoom out, though, and Tesla's long-term track record is extraordinary. The stock is up 51.69% over the past year more than 2,700% over 10 years. However, year-to-date in 2026, TSLA is down 11.23%, and today's session is a reminder that macro tailwinds alone cannot overcome company-specific headwinds when they pile up simultaneously.

Today's session tells you something important about where we are in the EV cycle. Oil surging toward $100 per barrel is enough to move Lucid Group and Rivian Automotive, but Tesla is in a different conversation entirely -- one about regulatory risk, political noise around its CEO, and a Chinese competitor that is closing the technology gap faster than most expected.

All three stocks remain deeply below their all-time highs, and today's moves, while real, should be understood as short-term reactions to a macro catalyst rather than signals of any fundamental shift. Whether LCID and RIVN can hold their gains over the next few trading sessions will be worth monitoring, along with any further developments around Tesla's FSD probe, a story is not going away anytime soon.

The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks

Wall Street is pouring billions into AI, but most investors are buying the wrong stocks. The analyst who first identified NVIDIA as a buy back in 2010 — before its 28,000% run — has just pinpointed 10 new AI companies he believes could deliver outsized returns from here. One dominates a $100 billion equipment market. Another is solving the single biggest bottleneck holding back AI data centers. A third is a pure-play on an optical networking market set to quadruple. Most investors haven't heard of half these names. Get the free list of all 10 stocks here.

Original Article on Source

Source: “AOL Money”