March Madness bubble watch: Pressure builds in final week of regular season
March Madness bubble watch: Pressure builds in final week of regular season
Jordan Mendoza, USA TODAYWed, March 4, 2026 at 10:17 AM UTC
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It's put up or shut up time for teams on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, as the final week of the men's college basketball regular season arrives.
Those still uncertain of reaching March Madness are feeling the magnitude of the moment, as every result is heightened ahead of Selection Sunday. Most have just a few games left before conference tournaments begin, and one team is already in do-or-die mode.
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Here are the teams on the bubble in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology, and what's ahead of them as they try to secure a spot in the bracket.
Texas A&M -
Record: 20-10 (10-7)
NET Ranking: 43
Quad 1 record: 5-6
Projected seed: No. 11
Quality wins: at Texas, at Georgia, vs. Kentucky
Bad losses: at Oklahoma State
A team that started SEC play 7-1 is in trouble with a 3-6 record in its past nine games, although it did just beat Kentucky. What's really hurt Texas A&M is it doesn't have a major win as no victory came against a ranked foe. The Aggies don't have to feel entirely scared of their outlook, but it needs to beat LSU (March 7) and win one SEC tournament game to feel comfortable.
Auburn
Auburn Tigers forward Filip Jovic (38) controls a rebound during the second half against the Mississippi Rebels at Neville Arena. -
Record: 16-14 (7-10)
NET Ranking: 38
Quad 1 record: 5-11
Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
Quality wins: vs. St John's (neutral), vs. Arkansas, at Florida
Bad losses: vs. Mississippi, at Mississippi State
The most polarizing team in the tournament conversation, Auburn is in the field thanks to a strong NET ranking and some major victories, even though it doesn't have a record of a March Madness contender. Projected to make the field, the Tigers can't afford more losses to squeak into the bracket. Regardless of what happens, they will be a major talking point.
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Santa Clara -
Record: 24-7 (15-3)
NET Ranking: 41
Quad 1 record: 1-5
Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four)
Quality wins: vs. Saint Mary's
Bad losses: vs. Loyola Chicago (neutral), vs. Arizona State (neutral)
The Broncos finished the regular season in third place of the West Coast Conference. Even though it has the dreaded Quad 4 loss, Santa Clara was able to get a win against co-conference champion Saint Mary's. It doesn't play until the WCC quarterfinals March 8, and it must win that game to feel confident. If it's able to beat the Gaels to advance to the title game, that could lock up a spot.
UCLA -
Record: 20-10 (12-7)
NET Ranking: 39
Quad 1 record: 4-8
Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
Quality wins: vs. Purdue, vs. Illinois, vs. Nebraska
Bad losses: vs. California (neutral), vs. Indiana, at Minnesota
Just when UCLA was getting off of the bubble thanks to a big win against Illinois, the Bruins rejoined the group with a road loss at Minnesota. Luckily, they returned home for a major beatdown of Nebraska to push them back in comfortable territory. Now beat crosstown rival Southern California on March 7 to boost the Quad 1 record and UCLA is feeling good going into the Big Ten tournament.
New Mexico -
Record: 22-7 (13-5)
NET Ranking: 42
Quad 1 record: 2-5
Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
Quality wins: at Virginia Commonwealth, vs. San Diego State
Bad losses: at New Mexico State, vs. Boise State
The Lobos could really have used a win at Nevada to boost the Quad 1 record, but they responded emphatically to beat San Diego State at home in what was a major bubble battle, a key reason New Mexico is in the projected field. Now Eric Olen's team has to beat Colorado State (March 4), and a major test awaits in a trip to Utah State (March 7), where it can clinch a share of the regular season title.
Indiana
Indiana Hoosiers head coach Darian Devries reacts to a call during the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Arena. -
Record: 17-12 (8-10)
NET Ranking: 40
Quad 1 record: 2-11
Projected seed: First four out
Quality wins: vs. Purdue, at UCLA
Bad losses: at Minnesota, vs. Northwestern
After riding high to start February, the Hoosiers came crashing down with four straight losses. Yes, three of them came against top-15 teams, but the home defeat to Northwestern was inexcusable and really set them back. Now Indiana has to win its last two, which won't be easy; playing a sneaky Minnesota team (March 4) and then at Ohio State (March 7) in a massive bubble game.
San Diego State -
Record: 19-10 (13-6)
NET Ranking: 44
Quad 1 record: 2-6
Projected seed: First four out
Quality wins: vs. Utah State
Bad losses: vs. Troy, vs. Grand Canyon (twice), at Colorado State
You can look at San Diego State's recent results with glass half full or glass half empty. Positive is it beat Mountain West leader Utah State and Boise State for two Quad 1 wins. The negative is it's the Aztecs' only wins in the past five games, with a really bad performance in the rematch with Boise State. SDSU remains in limbo, and it needs at least two more wins to creep back in the bracket projection.
Virginia Commonwealth -
Record: 23-7 (14-3)
NET Ranking: 47
Quad 1 record: 1-5
Projected seed: First four out
Quality wins: vs. South Florida (neutral)
Bad losses: at George Mason
Getting a win over Saint Louis would've been a major boost for the Rams, but they were unable to cash-in on their second opportunity. After avenging a loss to George Mason, VCU gets an excellent chance to add a Quad 1 win in the regular season finale at Dayton (March 6), though it's far from done since it will have to put up a solid showing in the Atlantic 10 tournament.
California -
Record: 20-9 (8-8)
NET Ranking: 63
Quad 1 record: 4-4
Projected seed: First four out
Quality wins: vs. UCLA (neutral), vs. North Carolina, at Miami
Bad losses: vs. Pittsburgh, at Kansas State, at Florida State, at Syracuse
All of the momentum Cal built was immediately eviscerated with a horrible double-digit Quad 3 home loss to Pittsburgh. The Golden Bears couldn't afford it as their NET ranking is already extremely high, and it now must win its last two games at Georgia Tech (March 4) and Wake Forest (March 7) before making considerable noise in the ACC tournament to move up the bubble.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bubble watch for final week of regular season
Source: “AOL Sports”
