Oil prices surge as US-Iran ceasefire looks increasingly tenuous
Oil prices surge as US-Iran ceasefire looks increasingly tenuous
Jake ConleyThu, April 9, 2026 at 2:02 PM UTC
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Oil prices surged on Thursday morning as military action continued in the Middle East, reversing some of the steep drop in prices following President Trump's ceasefire announcement on Tuesday morning.
Futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international pricing benchmark, gained more than 3% to trade above $98 per barrel, while those on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) picked up more than 5% to trade above $99 per barrel.
The US-Iran agreement for a temporary ceasefire looked increasingly fragile on Thursday morning as military action by Iran and Israel continued and senior Iranian leaders claimed the US had violated its side of the truce.
In a post to X on Wednesday, Iranian parliamentary speaker and former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) general Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has emerged as a leading voice within the regime, said the US and Iran's framework deal for negotiation "has been openly and clearly violated," making a ceasefire or negotiations "unreasonable."
Read more: How oil price shocks ripple through your wallet, from gas to groceries
The parliamentary speaker cited Israel's continued campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed terrorist proxy force, as well as drones intruding into Iranian airspace and the US's denial of Iran's "right to [nuclear] enrichment," which has been a consistent red line for the Trump administration.
The Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical shipping chokepoint for energy products, has remained essentially closed to through traffic. Only four vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, marking a decline from the average of nine per day over the previous five days, according to data from S&P Global Intelligence. One oil tanker has made the journey in the past 24 hours, according to Reuters, while the rest have been bulk carriers of dry goods.
Ships in the area were reportedly told by the Iranian regime through radio transmission that anyone attempting to make the crossing without approval from Iran would be "destroyed," according to The Wall Street Journal.
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In comments to reporters Wednesday night, Vice President JD Vance said that if the US doesn't see the Strait of Hormuz beginning to reopen, the White House is "not going to abide by our terms if the Iranians are not abiding by their terms."
Risk and shipping insurance experts, alongside energy analysts who study the Middle East, told Yahoo Finance that without firm guarantees of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz from Iran, shipping is unlikely to recover in any significant fashion.
A general view of the destruction following the Israeli army's attack on the Arab Salim town of Nabatieh Governorate, southern Lebanon, on April 9, 2026. (Ahmad Kaddoura/Anadolu via Getty Images) (Anadolu via Getty Images)
Israel's campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon has also become a key flash point between the US and Iran. While Iran has insisted that any ceasefire must include Lebanon, the Israeli military has continued to bombard the Mediterranean country, striking more than 100 targets on Wednesday in one of the most active days of Israel's military action yet.
The White House has claimed that the ceasefire agreement it struck with Iran doesn't include Lebanon, even as X accounts understood to be affiliated with the regime have published multiple statements labeling Israel's action as a direct violation of the agreement.
In a Truth Social post Thursday morning, President Trump said US forces would remain in the Middle East "until such time as the real agreement is fully complied with." If Iran doesn't hold up its end of negotiations, Trump wrote, "the 'shootin' starts,' bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before."
US and Iranian negotiators are expected to meet in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Saturday for potential talks.
Jake Conley is a breaking news reporter covering US equities for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @byjakeconley or email him at jake.conley@yahooinc.com.
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