Texas midterm poll shows tight races as early voting begins
Texas midterm poll shows tight races as early voting begins
Mateo Rosiles, USA TODAY NETWORKMon, October 19, 2026 at 1:30 PM UTC
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As early voting begins for Texans in the midterms, a new University of Houston poll shows Democrats narrowly leading in the U.S. Senate race while Republicans lead in all other statewide contests.
At the top of the ticket is the nationally watched Texas Senate contest between Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, where the Democratic hopeful leads 48% to 46%.
The UH Hobby School of Public Affairs poll, released the night of Oct. 18, was conducted Oct. 10-14 among 2,000 likely Texas voters, with a margin of error of 2.19 percentage points.
Here's a closer look at what the poll shows for the Texas Senate and other state races, and how it compares with recent polling.
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race as early voting starts
In the Texas U.S. Senate election, Talarico leads Paxton by 2 percentage points — within the margin of error — with 3% supporting Libertarian Ted Brown and 3% undecided.
The poll also found that 60% of independents back Talarico, with 32% breaking for Paxton. On favorability, 47% of likely voters view Talarico favorably and 50% unfavorably, while 41% view Paxton favorably and 57% unfavorably.
Recent Texas U.S. Senate race polls
Here's what other October polls have shown:
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Marist poll (Oct. 14) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%.
UT/Texas Politics Project (Oct. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 47%.
ReconMR (Oct. 13) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.
UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) — Talarico 45%, Paxton 45%.
YouGov poll (Oct. 6) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%.
The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%.
Fox News (Oct. 1) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%.
Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa in Texas governor race
In the governor's race, Republican Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 46%, with 2% supporting Libertarian Pat Dixon and 3% undecided.
The poll found that 49% of likely voters view Abbott favorably and 51% unfavorably, with 0% not knowing enough about him to have an opinion. 43% of likely voters view Hinojosa favorably and 44% unfavorably, with 13% not knowing enough about her to have an opinion.
Recent Texas governor race polls
Here's what October polls showed:
Marist poll (Oct. 14) — Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 45%.
UT/Texas Politics Project (Oct. 13) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 48%
ReconMR (Oct. 13) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 47%
UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 44%.
YouGov poll (Oct. 6) — Hinojosa 48%, Abbott 47%.
The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 46%.
Fox News (Oct. 1) — Abbott 52%, Hinojosa 47%.
Republicans lead Democrats in Texas statewide races
Here is also a look at the other statewide races in Texas and where they stand as early voting starts:
Lieutenant Governor: Dan Patrick* (R) 47%, Vikki Goodwin (D) 42%
Attorney General: Mayes Middleton (R) 47%, Nathan Johnson (D) 42%
Agriculture Commissioner: Nate Sheets (R) 46%, Clayton Tucker (D) 40%
Comptroller: Don Huffines (R) 47%, Sarah Eckhardt (D) 40%
Land Commissioner: Dawn Buckingham* (R) 47%, Benjamin Flores (D) 40%
Railroad Commissioner: Bo French (R) 45%, Jon Rosenthal (D) 43%
* - Incumbent.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Texas midterm poll shows tight races as early voting begins
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